There have been plenty of intriguing storylines almost a full month into the 2024 NFL season. As the schedule enters Week 4, the league has seen upsets of big favorites lead the way as each team attempts to gain ground in divisional races heading into the final weekend of the month.
The week kicks off with an NFC East showdown on Thursday night between the (1-2) Dallas Cowboys and (1-2) New York Giants. The Week 4 action continues on Sunday with three more divisional matchups. The (2-1) Green Bay Packers face Sam Darnold and the (3-0) Minnesota Vikings, the (2-1) New Orleans Saints head to Atlanta to take on the (1-2) Falcons and the (3-0) Kansas City Chiefs will matchup with the (2-1) Los Angeles Chargers.
In Sunday night’s primetime game, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills visit M&T Bank Stadium to battle Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens. Things wrap up with yet another doubleheader for Monday Night Football as the (1-2) Miami Dolphins play the (0-3) Tennessee Titans (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN) and the (3-0) Seattle Seahawks meet the (2-1) Detroit Lions in the final game of the slate (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN+/ABC)
Our betting analysts take an early look at Week 4 lines to find some value before things move closer to the games.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Dallas Cowboys (-4) vs. New York Giants
This is a fantastic bounce-back spot for the Cowboys, who have won 13 of their past 14 games against the Giants, with 11 of those victories coming by more than a touchdown. The look-ahead line here was Dallas -7, but that plummeted Sunday evening thanks to a brutal performance against Baltimore combined with the Giants’ upset win at Cleveland.
Well, you’re never as bad as you looked the previous week and you’re never as good as you looked the previous week, either. The Giants did everything they could to lose that game in the fourth quarter, but the Browns were too inept to capitalize. Look for Prescott and Lamb to shred the Giants’ suspect secondary in this one.
Anita Marks’ first bet: Pittsburgh Steelers–Indianapolis Colts under 40 points
Taking the under in Steelers’ games should be automatic at this point. Pittsburgh is 3-0 to the under this season, holding the Los Angeles Chargers to just 10 points on Sunday.
They travel to Indianapolis in Week 4 to face a Colts team that struggled against the Bears this past weekend. Anthony Richardson is one dimensional and has struggled to get the football to his own players (six interceptions). The Steelers’ offense with Justin Fields is all about carrying the rock and eating up time of possession.
Ben Solak’s first bet: Cincinnati Bengals–Carolina Panthers over 44.5 points (-115)
The top thing we should take away from Andy Dalton‘s debut with the Dave Canales-led Panthers: the team is willing to let him throw.
The Bengals defense has major question marks at defensive tackle and in the secondary. While Carolina’s defense had a spirited outing against the Raiders, I think they’ll have a much tougher day with the Bengals offense (especially now that Tee Higgins is back).
Seth Walder’s first bet: Indianapolis Colts ML (+105) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
How fortunate have the schedule gods been to the Steelers? Pittsburgh caught Atlanta with a rusty and immobile Kirk Cousins in Week 1, Bo Nix in his second career start in Week 2 and then a banged-up Justin Herbert — who was knocked out of the game — in Week 3. I’m willing to wager this early in the week that those circumstances might not be fully baked into the market and the Colts catching plus-money at home looks like a value.
Andre Snellings first bet: Houston Texans (-4.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars (-105).
The Texans are poised to bounce back in a major way after running into a buzz saw in Minnesota in Week 3. The previously stout Texans’ defense had trouble containing Justin Jefferson and the Vikings’ passing offense, but the Jaguars lack that kind of passing threat and have struggled to put points on the board this season (15.0 PPG through two games, T28th in NFL). On the other side of the ball, CJ Stroud has totaled 645 combined passing and rushing yards with five touchdowns and zero turnovers in two games against the Jaguars last season. He should be able to generate sufficient offense to allow the Texans to cover.
Pam Maldonado’s first bet: Travis Hunter to win the Heisman (+1600)
Hunter’s exceptional two-way performance for Colorado makes him a compelling Heisman candidate. As a top-ranked wide receiver and shutdown cornerback, his versatility is unmatched in modern college football. Hunter’s ability to excel on both offense and defense, with key plays like an interception and game-winning forced fumble, challenges traditional award criteria. His unique talent and impact truly embody the spirit of the Heisman Trophy.
