The UFC’s plan was to make a strong first impression in 2025 by putting its best foot forward. The year’s pay-per-view schedule would begin with a two-title-fight card headlined by MMA’s best fighter.
So much for the best laid plans.
Islam Makhachev, No. 1 in the ESPN pound-for-pound rankings, will still defend his lightweight championship in the main event of UFC 311 on Saturday (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV). But instead of fighting a rematch with Arman Tsarukyan, Makhachev (26-1) will instead face a late replacement, Renato Moicano, after Tsarukyan injured his back on Thursday night.
This is a significant downgrade in challenge for Makhachev, who has won 14 fights in a row and is the longest-reigning current champion in the UFC. Tsarukyan, on a 9-1 run since a unanimous decision loss to Makhachev in his UFC debut in 2019, is No. 2 in the ESPN lightweight rankings, right behind Makhachev. Moicano (20-5-1) is way down at No. 7.
Makhachev already was a betting favorite to retain his crown, but by Friday afternoon his odds had ballooned to 13-to-1 per ESPN BET.
This is why the UFC likes to top-load its pay-per-views with multiple title fights. Then again, the co-main event between men’s bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and 18-0 Umar Nurmagomedov offers a different sort of twist in the betting odds.
Dvalishvili (18-4) will be putting his belt on the line as a +230 underdog (as of Friday), despite being on an 11-fight winning streak. How uncommon are those odds? Not unprecedented, but close. Only one previous UFC champ — strawweight Carla Esparza (+280), defending against Zhang Weili in 2022 — has been a +250 or longer underdog in the 18 years that ESPN Research has been tracking odds. (That does not count title defenses against interim champs or rematches of upset dethronings.)
Beyond the two title fights, UFC 311 also features a clash of former champions, as Jiří Procházka (30-5-1) and Jamahal Hill (12-2) jostle for position among light heavyweight contenders. Both are angling for a return to the top of the mountain, but there’s room for just one. Who’ll it be?
Those three fights stand above all others on this weekend’s card. But how does the fight lineup as a whole stack up? Here’s a rundown.
Good things happen in threes
Men’s bantamweight championship: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov has fought six times in the UFC and has never been taken down. Only two of his opponents have even tried, however, and they were a combined 0 for 3. So let’s just say his takedown defense is largely untested — outside of a training gym full of elite Dagestani wrestlers. Nurmagomedov’s training camp preparation will be put to the test by Dvalishvili, who has takedowns in all but one of his 13 trips inside the Octagon and has hit double figures four times. One of those fights was in 2023 against former champ Petr Yan, who surrendered 11 takedowns — on 49 tries! Yes, “The Machine” is relentless.
However, if a fighter is piling up double-figure takedowns in three- or even five-round bouts, that means his opponents manage to climb back to their feet a lot. No doubt Nurmagomedov has been smothered daily in camp by his top-heavy teammates, all so he can work his way back to standing in this fight and put his pinpoint-accurate striking to good use.
Title bout by the numbers
1,950: Strikes landed in the UFC by Dvalishvili, the most in bantamweight history.
72: Takedowns for Dvalishvili in UFC bantamweight fights, most ever in the division. His overall UFC total of 85, which includes one catchweight fight, puts him five behind all-time leader Georges St-Pierre.
63.1: Significant striking accuracy percentage for Nurmagomedov, the best ever among UFC 135-pounders.
Light heavyweight: Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill
When Hill last fought in April, Alex Pereira knocked him out. When Procházka last fought in June, Pereira also knocked him out — for the second time in less than a year. Both of these former champions have set their sights on another date with the current champ, and they’ve talked about that more than they’ve dwelled on this fight with each other. But the road to Pereira leads through this stepping stone, so there’s no use getting ahead of oneself.
Both men are proven finishers, but Procházka knows no other way than hunt-’em-down abandon, with 26 knockouts and three submissions among his 30 wins. His recklessness did not serve him well in his losses to Pereira, but it could draw the hubris-laden Hill out of his typically disciplined approach and into an ill-advised brawl. It should be fun finding out.
Lightweight championship: Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Renato Moicano
This main event belongs in the top tier of UFC 311 only because it features the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. That, in itself, is somewhat of a rare treat for fans.
Even with his place at the top of the rankings and his stardom-by-association Khabib Nurmagomedov connection, Makhachev doesn’t have quite the aura of the man right below him in the pound-for-pound hierarchy, Alex Pereira. The light heavyweight champ has boosted his profile in a big way by putting on show after eye-opening show in rapid succession. Makhachev, by contrast, fought only once last year and twice in 2023. He makes an impression every time, though, so while a late change of opponent douses the enthusiasm, it’s always fun watching the best in the game go to work.
The odds are stacked as high as Kilimanjaro against Moicano, but he has won four in a row, most recently a TKO of Benoît Saint Denis in September. Can he make this one of the most shocking nights in the sport’s history?
Title bout by the numbers
13: Consecutive lightweight wins for Makhachev, the longest streak in division history. His overall win streak of 14 — including a catchweight bout — puts him third in UFC history, behind Anderson Silva (16) and Kamaru Usman (15).
60.3: Significant strike accuracy percentage of Makhachev, the best ever among UFC lightweights.
0-16: Combined record of fighters 35 or older in UFC lightweight title bouts. Do I even have to tell you how old Moicano is?
Digging a little deeper for gems
Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Holland is always entertaining — unless you’re locked in the Octagon with him and he’s talking, talking, talking. De Ridder, competing in the UFC for just the second time, surely never saw (or heard) anyone such as Holland during his five years with One Championship, where he once held the titles at light heavyweight and middleweight simultaneously. Focus, Reinier, focus.
Men’s bantamweight: Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos
The 26-year-old Talbott is a hot prospect, 3-0 in the UFC and 9-0 overall, with seven knockouts. He earned his roster spot in 2023 in his only fight to go the distance, setting a “Dana White’s Contender Series” bantamweight record by landing 145 significant strikes against Reyes Cortez Jr. Barcelos has lost four of his last six fights, but is there a better turnaround opportunity than a date in the cage with a golden boy?
Heavyweight: Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac
Here’s a tip for fighting Almeida: Do not let him get his hands on you. Here’s a dose of reality: It’s practically inevitable. In his eight UFC fights, Almeida has spent 87.3% of his time controlling his opponent, the most by far in UFC history in any weight class. In fact, no other active heavyweight has spent even half of his cage time in control. Spivac actually ranks fourth among current heavies … at a paltry 37.2%.
Lightweight: Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira
Ferreira has turned around his career in a captivating way. After dropping three straight fights in 2021, he has won his last two and been awarded performance of the night bonuses both times. To make it three in a row, he will have to avoid getting trapped underneath Dawson, who has spent 61.2% of his time as a UFC lightweight in top position, the highest percentage ever in the division. Keeping a distance goes a long way.
The rest of the names … and numbers
Light heavyweight: Billy Elekana vs. Bogdan Guskov
0: Decision wins by Guskov (16-3), who has two submissions and 14 knockouts. He has 12 first-round finishes and has been to a third round only twice. Go grab a coffee, cageside judges.
Middleweight: Zachary Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev
4: First-minute finishes by Reese in nine pro fights, including a 20-second knockout of Julian Marquez last June for his first UFC win. Another (quick) coffee break for the judges?
Women’s bantamweight: Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez
2.22: Striking differential (strikes landed for every one absorbed) in the UFC by Rosa, the best in division history. Yes, this is the weight class once ruled by the GOAT of women’s MMA, Amanda Nunes.
Men’s bantamweight: Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov
6: Pro fights it took Nakamura to earn a UFC roster spot. Since then, he is 3-0 inside the Octagon. The 29-year-old started in MMA less than four years ago after winning the under-23 wrestling world championship.
Men’s bantamweight: Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj
29: Season of “The Ultimate Fighter” on which Turcios won the bantamweight tournament. Coached by Alexander Volkanovski, Turcios defeated teammate Brady Hiestand by split decision in the August 2021 finale.
Men’s flyweight: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter
47: Percentage of Ulanbekov’s fights (8 of 17) that he has won by submission. He trains with Makhachev under coach Khabib Nurmagomedov, which is all you need to know about the Dagestani’s ground game.
ESPN’s Andres Waters contributed to this article.
