Astronomers are keeping a close eye on a recently discovered asteroid, and for good reason. Named 2024 YR4, the asteroid has a more than 1 percent chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, according to NASA.
The asteroid was first reported on December 27, 2024 by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile. ATLAS is an asteroid impact early warning system consisting of four telescopes located around the world.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 first caught the attention of astronomers when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on December 31, 2024, NASA reports. This list features asteroids close to Earth that have a “non-zero probability of impacting Earth in the future.”
According to the European Space Agency (ESA), the asteroid is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide. An asteroid this large impacts Earth every few thousand years on average and has the potential to cause severe damage to a local region.
To determine how concerned the public and policymakers should be about an asteroid, astronomers use the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which ranges from 0 to 10. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently at a 3, which is defined as: “A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1 percent or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.”
Should we be worried? “No, absolutely not,” David Rankin, a comet and asteroid spotter at the University of Arizona told The New York Times. The strike has the potential to cause catastrophic damage to a city if it were to hit, but not mass extinction. Plus, the odds of it making contact could diminish over time as further data is collected.
According to astronomers, Asteroid 2024 YR4 is very likely to miss Earth in 2032. However, if it’s discovered that it will make impact, “we might be able to do something about it,” Rankin said. Such intervention may involve NASA altering the asteroid’s path by crashing a spacecraft into it, like the agency did in 2022.
As time passes, the impact odds can decrease to zero as more observations are conducted. But astronomers will have a better opportunity to determine possible outcomes as 2024 YR4 passes by Earth again in December 2028.
