The payoff was worth it, right? When the UEFA Champions League‘s first-ever league phase began this season — with an expanded field, no groups and just one giant, 36-team table — it was a little bit difficult to work our way into the tournament. It was hard to tell what early wins and losses actually meant and the consequences of a slump felt pretty low, even for Europe’s powerhouse clubs.
But then Paris Saint-Germain entered the penultimate matchday outside the bubble, needing a pair of good results to actually qualify for the knockout rounds. Then Manchester City waited until the last 30 minutes to actually secure a spot during an absolutely chaotic, 64-goal, 18-matches-all-at-once final matchday.
In the end, almost nothing was decided until the final day, and of Wednesday’s 18 matches, only about six had no real stakes.
How decisive was that final day? Of the top 16 teams in the final league phase table, 12 won on Wednesday, and one of only two losses was suffered by a Liverpool team that had already clinched a spot in the top two. The team that finished in sixth place (Bayer Leverkusen) finished with only six more points than the team that finished 26th (Stuttgart). This thing was an absolute what-if machine, and it almost snagged a couple of the sport’s heavyweights.
The new format drew plenty of skepticism early on, and that’s somewhat justifiable — if only because at first glance it just seemed like a way for UEFA to coax more matches and more money out of its signature club event (and because, at first, two of the four extra bids were intended to go to big, successful clubs that hadn’t otherwise qualified for the Champions League). But once the extra bids were made a bit more democratic — in the end, the final two bids went to the highest-placed teams in the countries that had the most success in UEFA tournaments the year before — there was a lot to like here.
Teams were exposed to more opponents and got a bit more time to find their footing. Dinamo Zagreb nearly advanced despite losing 9-2 to Bayern Munich on Matchday 1. (In fact, if they’d only lost 6-2, they’d have made it.) Celtic fans got to celebrate three home wins as the tournament’s more middleweight clubs actually got to duke it out with other middleweights. Only two of 36 teams went winless, and only two had clinched a top-eight spot heading into the final matchday.
There were more fun moments for home crowds, and there was more limbo at the end. It’s hard to ask for much more than that, right?
So, as we prepare for Friday’s round-of-24 draw, let’s take a quick look back at Matchday 8, the best players of the league phase overall and the teams most well-positioned for a title run.
Most impactful games of Matchday 8
There weren’t many genuinely meaningless matches in the final matchday, but a few still stood out from the pack.
MANCHESTER CITY 3, CLUB BRUGGE 1
On Nov. 6, after a 4-1 loss to Sporting CP, Manchester City’s odds of advancing to the knockout rounds, per Opta’s power ratings, were still 99.4%. Three weeks later, after an equally disappointing 3-3 draw with Feyenoord (they led 3-0 in the 75th minute), their odds held at 97.2%. Hell, after a 2-0 loss to Juventus in December, they were still at 90.8%.
They had so many opportunities to right the ship in peaceful fashion but refused, collapsing late against PSG last week and finding themselves down 1-0 at halftime against Club Brugge on Wednesday. Then, in the 62nd minute, with an unfortunate own goal off of Joel Ordóñez, City finally saved themselves.
Manchester City complete the comeback 🔵 pic.twitter.com/dwWRb2WbFq
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) January 29, 2025
Savinho put the match away in the 77th minute, and City were officially safe.
After each of City’s first two goals, Brugge took control of the pitch for a moment, and City looked wobbly. This is, after all, still a flawed squad that, in its most important match of the season, started a center back at left back (Josko Gvardiol, who has put in a lot of time on the left this season) and a one-time attacking midfielder at right back (Matheus Nunes, who is not a right back).
It worked well enough to fend off Belgium‘s second-best club at home, but Pep Guardiola has only a couple of weeks to work a few new signings into the mix and establish a level well enough to test either Real Madrid or Bayern Munich in what will be the headline pairing of the knockout playoff round.
VFB STUTTGART 1, PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN 4
The biggest do-or-die match of the day became one-sided in a hurry. PSG, who trailed Manchester City 2-0 last week before ripping off four second-half goals, scored another three in the first 35 minutes at VfB Stuttgart. Speedy Bradley Barcola scored once, then assisted the first of three Ousmane Dembélé goals, and PSG, 25th heading into Matchday 7, rolled all the way up to 15th.
Ousmane Dembélé hatty! 🎩 pic.twitter.com/KR9kOujb8t
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) January 29, 2025
This was obviously a pretty disappointing way for Stuttgart’s campaign to end. Sebastian Hoeness’ squad was all over the map in this competition, fighting well but losing 3-1 to Real Madrid in Matchday 1, stumbling onto their back foot for much of a 1-1 draw with Sparta Prague and getting absolutely stomped 5-1 at Red Star Belgrade in Matchday 5, but showing well against Real Madrid in an eventual loss at the Bernabeu and scoring a memorable 1-0 win at Juventus. They would have advanced with a draw, but that possibility vanished within about 20 minutes.
DINAMO ZAGREB 2, AC MILAN 1
SPORTING CP 1, BOLOGNA 1
AC Milan entered the final matchday sitting sixth in the giant Champions League table, while Dinamo Zagreb were 26th. A lovely early counterattacking display produced a goal for Dinamo’s 21-year old Martin Baturina, and when Christian Pulisic tied the match for 10-man Milan early in the second half, Dinamo quickly responded via Marko Pjaca.
The loss was enough to drop Milan all the way to 13th in the table — they’ll face either Feyenoord or Juventus in the knockout playoff round — and it sure seemed like it would be enough to push Dinamo into the knockouts as well. All they needed was for an inspired (and eliminated) Bologna to hold onto a late 1-0 lead in Lisbon against Sporting. Alas, 19-year-old Conrad Harder‘s 77th minute tap-in salvaged a draw and allowed Sporting to steal Dinamo’s spot.
Conrad Harder’s strike secures Sporting’s playoff spot 🟢 pic.twitter.com/3HszPW4nW2
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) January 29, 2025
LILLE 6, FEYENOORD 1
ASTON VILLA 4, CELTIC 2
The battle for the final spots in the top eight were absolutely fierce. Here are the teams that finished sixth through 12th.
Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich all won comfortably and were positioning themselves to take advantage of a slip from either Lille or Aston Villa. (Bayer Leverkusen was comfortably favored against Sparta Prague and won comfortably.) But after watching a 2-0 lead disappear in three minutes thanks to a pair of Adam Idah goals for Celtic, Villa responded with methodical domination. Celtic managed only two shot attempts in the final 50 minutes, while Villa attempted 13 second-half shots, went ahead in the 60th minute thanks to Ollie Watkins, and then put the match away with Morgan Rogers‘ third goal of the evening.
There was no slip-up in Birmingham, and there was really no stumble in Lille. After Lille and Feyenoord traded goals in the opening 15 minutes, Lille laid the hammer down with a combination of brilliant finishes and Feyenoord miscues. Four different Lille players scored, including Jonathan David, and they got a pair of own goals from Gernot Trauner as well.
The final score was rather misleading — Lille attempted 14 shots worth 1.2 xG, and pulling six goals from that was highly improbable. But they have ruthlessly exploited opponents’ mistakes this whole tournament. They earned their bye, and they landed in what might be the friendliest portion of the draw.
BARCELONA 2, ATALANTA 2
This one was almost impactful. A Barca win would have clinched the top spot in the table — it wouldn’t have benefited them in any way as far as the draw is concerned, but would have felt like a pretty symbolic victory after recent seasons’ struggles in the Champions League. Meanwhile, an Atalanta win would have salvaged a top-eight spot for a team with absolute top-eight upside.
In the end, we got one of the only draws of the day.
Barca seized control twice, Atalanta responded twice with vigor, and Barca couldn’t find a late winner despite creating some decent chances. Fun match.
Best XI of the league phase
With new January registrations on the way following the end of the winter transfer window, some of the teams in the knockout playoff round could look pretty different moving forward (hello, Manchester City), but let’s quickly commemorate the best players of this strange league phase journey.
Bayern and PSG were each a bit disappointing, but both had multiple starters on the league phase XI. Liverpool was comfortably the best team, but really only had one player for the list. (Oh, and because history belongs to the victors, we’ll list only players from teams that made the knockout playoff round.)
GK: EMI MARTINEZ, ASTON VILLA. The ever-quirky 32-year-old was second among goalkeepers with 4.4 goals prevented (calculated by comparing the postshot xG value of opponents’ shots on goal to actual goals allowed), and he was one of the better ball progressors among Champions League goalkeepers too, leading the field with 58 progressive carries and ranking second with 380 overall touches.
Backup: Lucas Chevalier, Lille
RB: ACHRAF HAKIMI, PSG. He’s just the best right back in the world, and he proves it pretty frequently. There were more successful right backs than left backs in this competition, and it didn’t matter — name the statistical category, and Hakimi probably ranked first in it: assists (3), chances created (21), shots on goal (8), pass attempts (578) and completions (510), touches (836), progressive carries (91), progressive passes (57), even successful 1v1s in the box (4). He’s basically a full-fledged right winger in possession … but he also ranked second among right backs in defensive interventions (91). A fire starter and fire fighter.
Backup: Marcos Llorente, Atletico Madrid
CB: OLIVIER BOSCAGLI, PSV EINDHOVEN; STEFAN DE VRIJ, INTER. Considering PSV allowed at least two goals in four of their eight matches, we’re not really putting Boscagli on here for his defensive work. We’re putting him on here because defenders are also the first prong of the attack, and no center back was better in that role: He created seven chances (first among CBs), attempted seven shots (third), and completed 111 progressive passes (third) and 96 progressive carries (fourth). The plus-1.4 expected point value added (xPVA) from his on-ball actions was first as well.
De Vrij? He’s on here because of his defensive work — more specifically, his team’s defensive work. Inter allowed one goal — one goal! — in eight matches, easily leading the league phase in both that category and xG allowed per shot. Goalkeeper Yann Sommer did excellent work between the posts, but Inter were also collectively brilliant at preventing good opportunities.
(Red denotes no goal, green denotes goal)
Even when opponents worked the ball into the box, there was almost always a body between the ball and the goal, and xG figures (represented by the size of the circles above) remained low. Each of the trio of De Vrij, Alessandro Bastoni and Benjamin Pavard were sound, but we’ll give De Vrij the nod because he also ranked first on the team in defensive interventions and second in combined progressive carries and passes (behind only Bastoni).
Backups: Brendan Chardonnet, Brest; Nicolás Otamendi, Benfica
LB: NUNO MENDES, PSG. There haven’t been many genuine standout leftbacks in this competition — even stalwarts like Bayern’s Alphonso Davies and AC Milan’s Theo Hernández didn’t really light the world afire. But Mendes was steady and strong on both ends, scoring once and ranking fifth among left backs with 82 defensive interventions, and no left back in the world progresses the ball better: He was first in progressive carries (79 — only Davies also had more than 62) and first in progressive passes (158 — only Davies and City’s Josko Gvardiol also had more than 100).
Backups: Alphonso Davies, Bayern Munich
DM: JOSHUA KIMMICH, BAYERN MUNICH. His future at Bayern appears uncertain at the moment, but the 29-year-old remains one hell of a metronome. No one in the league phase had the ball at his feet more than Kimmich, who led the competition in touches (895), pass attempts (748) and pass completions (689), and he was also fifth in progressive passes (109) and, for good measure, second in ball recoveries (48). Pitching in three assists (seventh) from 22 chances created (third) was just showing off.
Backup: Youri Tielemans, Aston Villa
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CM: MALIK TILLMAN, PSV EINDHOVEN. The 22-year-old American has been one of the breakout stars of the competition. He combined three goals — including two during a mad, late (and vital) comeback against Shakhtar Donetsk — with two assists from 21 chances created, and he would have also been on a Try Stuff XI list. He won 64% of his one-on-ones, while drawing five fouls in the attacking third. After a slow start, PSV advanced with four wins from their past five matches, and Tillman was a major catalyst in that.
Backup: Davide Zappacosta, Atalanta (more of a left midfielder, but still)
AM: JAMAL MUSIALA, BAYERN MUNICH. As I was putting this list together, I started to think American Christian Pulisic (AC Milan) might also make the team alongside Tillman. Then I compared his stats to Musiala. Both had five combined goals and assists — Pulisic had four and one respectively, while Musiala had two and three — but like Hakimi, Musiala is almost too statistically dominant to have any competition at this position. He matched Pulisic’s goal creation prowess while playing a far greater role in buildup play: He had 66 progressive carries to Pulisic’s 45, 16 successful one-on-ones to Pulisic’s seven and even 50 defensive interventions to Pulisic’s 24. Musiala is just incredible. And he hasn’t turned 22 yet.
Backup: Christian Pulisic, AC Milan
RW: MOHAMED SALAH, LIVERPOOL. Liverpool’s league phase story was one of controlled brilliance. They were clearly the best team in this phase, outscoring opponents 15-2 with seven wins in their first seven matches before giving backups a run on Wednesday (and damn near taking a point against PSV while doing so). Fourteen different Reds contributed at least one goal or assist over eight matches, but no one does controlled brilliance like Salah, who, even while sitting during the last match and playing only 602 of 720 minutes, led all Champions League right wingers with seven combined goals and assists. Among all positions, only Atalanta’s Charles De Ketelaere topped Salah’s four assists, and he could have done even more had his teammates not been contributing so dang much, too!
Backup: Michael Olise, Bayern Munich
CF: SERHOU GUIRASSY, BORUSSIA DORTMUND. So much of being a great striker boils down to (A) finding good opportunities and (B) putting those opportunities in the net. We overvalue (B) as compared to (A) at times, but both are vitally important, and no one has done a better job of both (A) and (B) than Guirassy thus far. Including four penalty attempts, he created (or had created for him) eight shots worth more than 0.3 xG during BVB’s run to 10th place. He put seven of them in the net, including all four pens, and of his 23 total shot attempts in the league phase, he put 15 of them on goal and six in the net.
ELEVEN(!) #UCL goal contributions for Serhou Guirassy so far this season 🔥 pic.twitter.com/i34NqSZxXO
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) January 29, 2025
Barca’s Robert Lewandowski was equally lethal in this department, but I’m giving the edge to Guirassy both because he also contributed a bit more in the ball progression department and because he didn’t have Raphinha and Yamal on either side of him.
Backup: Robert Lewandowski, Barcelona
Left winger: Raphinha, Barcelona. He honestly might be the MVP of the competition thus far. Raphinha led the league phase with 12 combined goals and assists; he had eight of the former (including a hat trick in a huge 4-1 win over Bayern) and four of the latter (including two against Atalanta on Wednesday). He was the best left winger of the league phase — despite pretty stiff competition from Vinícius Júnior and Florian Wirtz — and against Young Boys, he switched to more of a central role and came up with a goal and assist from there.
Barça’s overall form has teetered a bit in all competitions as the patented Hansi Flick high defensive line has grown a bit more easy to exploit, but even if a game turns into an all-attack track meet, Barca can still win quite a few more matches in this competition thanks to the exploits of Raphinha, Lamine Yamal and Robert Lewandowski.
Backup: Vinicius Junior, Real Madrid or Florian Wirtz, Bayer Leverkusen
So who wins this thing?
This year’s knockout rounds are an interesting combination of American-style seeding with European-style random draws. In a strictly-seeded 24-team, for instance, the No. 1 seed would play the winner of No. 16 vs. No. 17 in the round of 16, while No. 8 plays the winner of No. 9 vs. No. 24.
To blur the picture a bit, soccer-style, Nos. 1/2, 3/4, 5/6, et cetera, are interchangeable. The bracket will clear itself up a bit after Friday’s knockout playoff round draw, but at this exact moment, all we know is the batches of potential opponents.
Regardless, this is already a potentially fascinating draw. We know that Manchester City will play either Bayern or Real Madrid in the first round — put another way, one of Real Madrid or Bayern will play City while the other plays Celtic — and at most, only two of those three royal teams will advance to the round of 16. Meanwhile, we also know that two teams from a fun batch of Atalanta, Aston Villa, Borussia Dortmund, Club Brugge, Lille and Sporting CP will make the quarterfinals.
Obviously, City vs. Bayern/Real Madrid will be the headliner of the first knockout round, but there are some potentially fun intraleague matchups such as Milan vs. Juventus, Feyenoord vs. PSV and PSG vs. either Monaco or Brest on the board.
PSG’s recent knockout round history suggests it would be rather apt if they were upset early on, but a win and a round-of-16 matchup against Liverpool or (especially) Barcelona would be dynamite as well. And I’m going to lap up nearly any combination of matchups from the Lille/Villa sections of the draw: the home crowds will be absolutely rocking for any of Villa, BVB, Lille, Sporting or Atalanta, especially with their clubs facing major opportunities for a big run.
That’s enough chit chat, though. Who’s actually going to win this thing?
According to ESPN BET, we basically have five primary favorites: Liverpool, Barcelona, Arsenal and whoever doesn’t draw Manchester City in the knockout playoff round.
The odds for Real Madrid and Bayern should shift a bit after Friday’s draw tells us which will face City, though Real Madrid’s current torrid form should make them a solid favorite regardless. If they avoid an upset, PSG loom as a potential bracket landmine for either Liverpool or Barca, too, though we won’t know which until the draw before the round of 16.
The main story at this stage is, even with Liverpool’s incredible current form, no one is really a favorite just yet. But just for grins, here’s how I predict things would play out if I were given complete control over who draws who in the bracket.
KNOCKOUT PLAYOFF ROUND PICKS
• Benfica over Brest
• Borussia Dortmund over Club Brugge
• Bayern Munich over Celtic
• PSV Eindhoven over Feyenoord
• AC Milan over Juventus
• Real Madrid over Manchester City
• Atalanta over Sporting CP
• PSG over Monaco
ROUND OF 16 PICKS
• Liverpool over Benfica
• Aston Villa over Borussia Dortmund
• Bayer Leverkusen over Bayern Munich
• Inter Milan over PSV Eindhoven
• Arsenal over AC Milan
• Real Madrid over Atletico Madrid
• Atalanta over Lille
• PSG over Barcelona
QUARTERFINAL PICKS
• Liverpool over Aston Villa
• Bayer Leverkusen over Inter Milan
• Real Madrid over Arsenal
• Atalanta over PSG
SEMIFINAL PICKS
• Liverpool over Bayer Leverkusen
• Real Madrid over Atalanta
FINAL PICK
• Liverpool over Real Madrid
Bask in these perfect predictions until Friday’s draw messes up all the matchups.
