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Swiggy Shares Decline: The stock has been under pressure as analysts have revised their loss estimates for Swiggy’s quick commerce business
Swiggy Shares Fall
Swiggy Share Price Today: Swiggy Ltd saw a 6 per cent drop in Monday’s trade, extending its five-day losing streak to 22 per cent. The stock has been under pressure as analysts have revised their loss estimates for Swiggy’s quick commerce business, citing early signs that the execution gap between Swiggy’s Instamart and Zomato’s Blinkit is widening.
In its Q3 results, the company’s EBITDA losses exceeded expectations, with its net loss widening to Rs 799 crore. However, revenue increased by 31 per cent year-on-year (YoY).
The stock is now trading below its IPO issue price of Rs 390. So far in 2025, Swiggy has seen its market capitalization drop by Rs 40,253 crore, and it has lost Rs 57,816 crore from its all-time high.
“With heightened competition and continued investment in dark stores, we expect losses to widen further in Q4. While Swiggy’s food delivery KPIs (growth, MTU increase, etc.) outperformed Zomato, its quick commerce KPIs lagged, particularly in terms of order growth and contribution margin (CM),” said BofA Securities.
The brokerage has set a target price of Rs 510, maintaining a “buy” rating, as it anticipates intense competition over the next 3-6 months but remains optimistic about the medium-term potential for quick commerce growth.
“While the food delivery business remains stable, there are early signs of widening execution variance in quick commerce. We maintain our Reduce rating on Swiggy with a target price of Rs 455 per share,” stated HDFC Institutional Equities.
HDFC noted that Swiggy’s quick commerce performance fell short of expectations, with rising competition keeping customer incentives, acquisition costs, and dark store network investments elevated. The brokerage has revised its adjusted EBITDA loss estimates to Rs 1,580 crore for FY26 and Rs 1,230 crore for FY27, from earlier estimates of Rs 1,440 crore (FY26) and Rs 1,030 crore (FY27).
UBS stated that Swiggy’s Q3 results were below expectations, with quick commerce gross order value (GOV) growth and margins falling short of both its own estimates and Zomato’s performance.
“While the food delivery segment performed better with GOV growth of 3.4 per cent QoQ and EBITDA margins of 2.5 per cent, both beating UBS estimates, the consolidated adjusted EBITDA loss of Rs 490 crore was nearly 40 per cent worse than UBS’s estimated loss of Rs 360 crore. The management reiterated its group-level break-even targets but acknowledged that competition in the quick commerce space is intense and margin pressure will persist in the coming quarters,” UBS said.
UBS has suggested a target price of Rs 515 for Swiggy.
Elara Securities noted that while Swiggy does not expect a sharp contribution margin (CM) loss going forward and aims to turn CM positive by Q4CY25, some volatility at the adjusted EBITDA level is expected.
“Instamart improved its average order value (AOV) to Rs 534 (up 7 per cent QoQ), but the gap remained steady at 5 per cent versus Zomato. Active users rose 12.9 per cent QoQ to 7 million, lower than Zomato’s 19.1 per cent QoQ growth, likely due to store additions towards Q3-end. Thus, user growth may accelerate moving forward,” Elara stated.
Elara Securities has set a target price of Rs 300 for Swiggy.
