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Shares of state-owned NTPC fell by 2.8% to a low of Rs 314.50 on the BSE during early trade on Monday, January 27
NTPC Shares
Shares of state-owned NTPC fell by 2.8% to a low of Rs 314.50 on the BSE during early trade on Monday, January 27, following the company’s quarterly results for the period ending December 2024. The company reported a 3.1% year-on-year (YoY) increase in standalone net profit, which reached Rs 4,711.4 crore.
NTPC’s Q3 performance showed a modest single-digit growth in net profit, in line with market expectations. The base quarter’s results were boosted by other income from subsidiaries. Analysts pointed to slow execution and a downgrade in conventional capacity commissioning targets. However, analysts remain optimistic, citing an increasing peak deficit that could drive plant load factors (PLFs). They also expect potential incentives for NTPC’s coal plants over FY26-27 and believe timely commissioning of thermal and renewable energy capex, along with growing profits from subsidiaries and joint ventures, could boost NTPC’s consolidated profits going forward.
Despite this, analysts expressed caution regarding capacity addition in FY25 and FY26 due to the bunching of thermal projects. JM Financial maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock but revised its target price to Rs 359 from Rs 471, based on 2.3 times the December 2026 regulated equity of its thermal business and 14 times the December 2026 EBITDA of its renewable energy (RE) business.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) noted that NTPC’s standalone Q3 EBITDA came in 2% above its estimates, although adjusted PAT was lower due to a higher-than-expected tax rate and adjustments from the previous year. MOFSL also pointed out that NTPC’s profitability at the PAT level was impacted by a Rs 360 crore adverse movement in regulatory deferral account balances. They forecasted a decline in under-recovery for coal-based plants from Rs 470 crore in 9MFY25 to Rs 300 crore by the end of FY25. MOFSL valued NTPC Green Energy at Rs 65 per share, a 25% discount to its current market price, and maintained its ‘Neutral’ rating with a target price of Rs 366.
Meanwhile, Nuvama maintained NTPC as its top pick in power utilities, citing inexpensive valuations and a strong expected 10% EPS CAGR over FY24–27, driven by 23GW thermal/renewable energy capex and rising CERC incentives. Nuvama reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a revised target price of Rs 412, noting a 30% discount for NTPC Green compared to its current market price.
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